Market Report: January 3, 2024

Happy New Year! The new year brings with it new optimism and hope that January doesn’t continue the status quo on what was seen throughout December.

Barley: DLVD Lethbridge pricing is around $310-315/MT, with landed prices for imported US corn hovering around that same price range. With feed lots having already contracted their feed needs well into early spring, compounded with the weaker Canadian dollar continuing to encourage US corn imports, the barley market will continue to remain flat in the coming months.

Canola: The second half of December showed support levels for ICE Canola March futures at $650/MT. Just when you think we’ve hit bottom, this market continues to disappoint. In the new year, March futures have dropped roughly $10/MT and are trading around $640/MT. Is $640/MT going to be the new support level? Who knows since canola is closely tied to crude oil, soybeans, and palm oil markets, which are all showing signs of weakness.

Wheat: According to Russian state statistics, the country produced 92.77 MMT in 2023 compared to 104.23 MMT in 2022. As Russia continues to be the world’s largest wheat exporter, they are hoping to export around 65 MMT. Even though their export options are limited they will continue to play an important role in the global wheat markets and impact the evolution of prices throughout 2024.

Lentils: Some good news for producers here at home as India has extended its import duty exemption until March 31, 2025.

Other:
-According to the Russian Fertilizers Producers Association, fertilizer output in 2024 is going to increase by roughly 10%. With international sanctions still in place against Russia, their increase in production should help keep a lid on any major price spikes in this market globally. This is good news as producers begin to price out their fertilizer needs for the 2024 season.
-The Grain Services Union (GSU) has given Viterra the 72-hour strike notice. Talks between both sides are occurring January 3rd/4th, and if they don’t go well the union workers could be walking off the job sometime Friday afternoon at the earliest.

Seller Tip: January and February are going to fly by and then we will be into road ban season. Put up some targets now for these months; and even further out months if you usually market once road bans are over. Buyers’ contracts for January are already being filled up fast. Give us a call at 1-888-969-5552 and let’s get some targets posted so we can help you capitalize on the short-lived price opportunities as they arise.