Market Report: February 28, 2024

The grain market currently appears to be comfortable with the current level of stocks. There is no weather threat or political issue that is giving the market any reason to panic. The current question asked by many is will the price erosion stop? Can prices hold near the bottom of the elevated 2021-2023 prices caused by world drama or will they drop to the lower range that was common in the 2015-2020 period pre-world drama.

Canola has been on a slow but steady decline. Canola futures prices, both old and new crop , have fallen below $600/MT for the first time since December 2020 and still showing volatility. At the time of writing, Canola was up $0.30/BU from the beginning of the week. Current Canola delivered prices available in Edmonton area range from $12.80-13.30/BU Feb-July and around $13.00/BU New crop. In Sask, we are seeing around $13.00 Feb-July and $12.90 for new crop.

Turning to wheat, there is a lot of competition in the market from Europe and Russia. Also, Ukraine is exporting despite the unfortunate on-going aggression from Russia. Added to this is the strong U.S. dollar that is putting North American crop exports at a disadvantage. If American crop exports lag, that puts a downward pressure on the U.S. crop futures market. The current 1 HRS 13.5 delivered price available in Edmonton area is around $8.90/BU Mar-April and $8.00/BU New crop. In Sask, we are seeing around $8.60 Mar-April and $7.89 for new crop.

Barley continues to decline slightly week after week and even day to day. A brief description of the barley market is as follows: A buyer has mentioned that he offers a price to a producer one day and lets the producer know it will likely be gone the next. Mainly due to the large barley stocks compared to demand as barley is continuing to have to compete with U.S. corn available. If one producer doesn’t take the available price the next producer will. Current barley prices available into Lethbridge are $265/MT Delivered March-April, $275/MT May to July. New crop indications are around $275-280/MT.

The milling oat market has also been in a slow and steady decline for the last few weeks. We are currently seeing the best bids available at $4.90-5.00/BU Delivered Edmonton area for first and second quarter with not much of an increase for third quarter. New crop indications available are currently $4.65/BU DLVD. We have noted a slight drop in feed oat price and demand. We have heard from multiple feed lot buyers that with the current price of barley, the price per pound ratio for the current price of feed oats does not pencil out. A larger feed oat buyer recently dropped their bid almost $0.50/BU dropping their available delivered prices to around $4.00/BU in Central Alberta due to demand.

Green Lentils continue to be in demand, old and new crop. Old crop #2 large green lentil bids are above $0.80/lb FOB farm and new crop around $0.60/lb. Old crop #2 small green lentil bids are $0.76/lb FOB farm and new crop around $0.52/lb in Sask and Alberta.

Sellers Tip: Currently we are seeing lower volatility in the market for current and future prices. Please call us today at 1-888-969-5552 to talk strategies for old and new crop marketing.