Market Report: March 27, 2024

As we roll into the second quarter, there has been a change in tone and a sense of optimism for some of the Ag commodities. Barley and canola are fairing better, while wheat continues to lag behind.

Barley: The barley market has seen improvement year to date. Seasonal trends and rising corn futures have provided a lift to the feed market. DLVD Lethbridge pricing is around $270-280/MT. Barley ICE futures staged a rally to end 2023, and so far in 2024 the trend remains intact. January saw a continuation of the rally that started in December. February saw the rally take a pause, and now, in March, we are seeing a resumption of the uptrend. Do keep in mind that local factors will have an effect on regional supply, demand and price. On that note, we are seeing buyer interest picking up, at least in the short term. Through our network we have sourced a buyer that is looking for large tonnage. If you are interested in moving barley, now might be the time to reach out to your representative.

Canola: March continues to be kind to the oilseed markets. ICE Canola May futures have staged an impressive rally, rising 13% from $577/MT before running into resistance at the $650/MT level. Why did the rally find resistance at $650? Prior resistance and round numbers, within markets, can have a tendency to be magnets for price. Canola futures found support around the $580/MT level with a little bit of overshoot to the downside to hit $577 at the low. Now on the upside, the rally has paused at $650 with a bit of overshoot to the upside, hitting a $652 high on March 21st. As it stands today, ICE Canola futures are consolidating, or digesting, the rally that began on March 6th. Where we go from here, nobody can know. But, let me check my crystal ball for a second. If ICE Canola May futures can break out above the $655 level, there could be price discovery higher, up to the $675-680/MT level. Do keep in mind that the market will do what it is going to do, so all that we can do is look for signs and judge what is “likely” to happen next. From a risk management perspective, now might be a good time to sell a load or two of canola. You will be happy that you did if this rally fails, and if it continues, you can sell more into the rally. This is all about managing your risk.

Wheat: the wheat market would be that annoying relative at the Easter dinner table, the one that is still debating if Mulroney or Chretien was the better Prime Minister. Just when you think that wheat prices could be rising, the market says otherwise and falls back down. Wheat futures continue to be weak, and stuck in a sideways to down trend until proven otherwise. Again, with risk management in mind, if you need cashflow, a good strategy is to average out of your tonnage. Sell some to raise cash, sell more on a rally, and if the wheat market falls from here, you will be happier that you did.

Sellers Tip: Road Ban season is upon us. If you need to move it due to road restrictions, or yard conditions, now is the time to book it in.