Market Report: March 13, 2024

Canola: It is nice to finally have something positive to discuss regarding this market. May Canola futures are currently trending around $625/MT which is nice to see we are finally back above the $600 mark. Now we get to wait and see if it will break above that $650/MT ceiling and if it does that, will it continue upwards? Fingers crossed.

Lack of export opportunity continues to be the big thorn in everybody’s side. According to CGC data, canola exports have only totaled 3.445 MMT for the marketing year which is down 35% compared to this time last year. Will a large export opportunity come knocking on Canada’s door? Your guess is as good as mine but there is always a chance. One day we could be having a completely different conversation in regards to markets/prices/marketing if this were to occur. Again, fingers crossed.

Seeding Intentions: Current market prices and talks of it being another dry year have forced producers to evaluate their seeding intentions a bit more closely this year. According to StatCan, 21.39 million acres of canola are expected to be planted, compared to 22.08 acres that was planted in 2023. Spring wheat remains consistent with expectations sitting at 19.23 million acres compared to 19.47 million acres in 2023. When looking at barley, the expectations are around 7.13 million acres which is slightly below 7.32 million acres planted last year.

Flax: StatCan is predicting a 16.2% decline compared to last year, with only 510,000 acres being planted in 2024. Something to consider adding to the mix (even a tiny amount) if you are comfortable with it and it makes sense for your operations.

The next StatCan survey results will be released around the end of June. One interesting aspect we will get to see is if producers decided to plant more oats than barley for this 2024 season.

Weather: In regards to a transition from El Nino to La Nina, World Weather Inc. believes it could be a quick transition this summer and that “in the past, when there has been a quick transition from El Nino to La Nina, there was a strong tendency for drier and warmer biased conditions in the US Corn Belt and Plains.” In Alberta, according to MarketsFarm, “51 river basins covering more than half of the province’s agricultural land are experiencing critical water shortages. The Oldman and St. Mary’s Reservoirs are at less than half of normal levels at this time of year, while municipalities in the southwest have trucked in water because of low levels.” Without question we still need a few wet snowfalls to help put some moisture back in the ground and the rain to fall this spring when we need it most.