Well… You set targets and wait.
If you’re needing bin space or off-combine movement, we’d like to help you market your grain as efficiently and profitably as possible, but apart from that, we’re targeting higher levels for October-December (and beyond).
Harvest throughout the prairies will be well underway over the next 1-2 weeks, but markets are running out of gas to push prices down further. In southern Alberta / Saskatchewan, yields have been well below average so far. Sellers with small crops who have bin space will surely be storing their grain, which will make for a hungrier end-user this harvest. Buyers will be looking north of Calgary / Regina over the coming weeks to see if yields/quality improve.
Canola – Compared to the last few years, elevators and crush plants are said to have low amounts of forward priced canola on the books. And based on current basis levels, many buyers are still waiting to see if the farmer will be blinking first in the annual harvest-time game of chicken. Futures have been testing a $490/mt bottom. If they can rally beyond $520-530/mt, then we might be in the clear for another run at $12 canola later this fall.
Spring wheat – Time to sell was 6-10 weeks ago. “But I don’t sell until it’s in the bin… You know that.” … Well, that’s fair, but it’s going to need to sit in the bin for a while now if you’re not happy with current bids. Strong pricing, especially for good quality, will still be attainable, but targets will need to be placed for October-March if you’re hoping to see levels at $8/bu and beyond.
Feed wheat buyers are still interested, but haven’t been too willing to offer higher pricing past August-September. We’re booking off-combine sales around $5.25-5.50/bu picked-up, and setting targets for October-December.
Barley – Spot prices will most likely be at a discount until harvest wraps up. Unless you need bin space, we’re targeting prices for October-December: $3.80-4.00/bu Edmonton to Red Deer, and $4.10-4.25/bu around Calgary.
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Note, $4 barley should help feed wheat bids return to $5.75-6.00/bu later on.
Give us a call or send us an email to post a target on Agfinity.com!
Green Peas – Could be some quality issues / higher bleaching this year. If you end up with good looking peas, chances are you’ll see stronger pricing at some point this year! Current bids around $8.43/bu delivered now through November.
Yellow Peas – Bids also at $8.43/bu delivered now through November. India has not had perfect weather and is expected to be a consistent buyer this next crop year.
Prices for peas are expected to stay flat through harvest, but once they’re binned, incentives to get them
back out of the bin should resume.
We’re anticipating prices to reach $9+/bu delivered by October/November/December. Let’s set a target!
Oats
– Not much to say for oats, but prices are still expected to re
cover. Consider scaling in targets throughout this next crop year. Current bids for old crop 2cw oats have been trading around $2.90/bu delivered, with weaker bids into the fall. For October-December, we’re targeting values between $3.00-3.25/bu delivered. If you’d like us working on a target, please let us kno
w!
Corn
– The king of all crops has been re-entering feedlot discussions in souther
n Alberta. Though this doesn’t help the price of barley / feed wheat, if corn goes up, domestic feed bids should follow.
