Market Report: May 29, 2024

Weather: Temperatures remain mild throughout the week in the mid teens, rising on the weekend into low to mid 20’s across the Prairie region. The low pressure system continues to pass through Northern Alberta, bringing showers to the radar. Indicating areas of the Peace River crossing through into Alberta/Saskatchewan border and moving eastern through Saskatchewan later in the week. Unfortunately, the heaviest rains are expected to fall out of the main agricultural areas.  

Poor weather ranging from wet conditions to frost, will likely result in lower crop production in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, including their oilseeds. As well as, a series of storms across the U.S. brought large amounts of rain to the western Corn Belt, while the eastern half received a lot less. Heavy rains combined with tornadoes are responsible for widespread destruction and more than 20 deaths. More stormy weather was forecast for today for parts of Texas. 

Wheat: Wheat markets were higher today as the U.S. futures markets were supported by concerns about the Russian situation. Wheat markets were led by Kansas City contracts, which were up by by nine to ten cents per bushel on the day. Chicago wheat futures were up by three cents per bushel, while Minneapolis futures were up four to five cents per bushel. The September Minneapolis contract closed the day at US$7.66 per bushel, which is the highest level for the contract since the first week of December.  This has moved the spread between the September Minneapolis and Kansas City contracts down to 22 cents per bushel. This is the narrowest spread between Minneapolis and Kansas City futures in contract history and is 10 to 15 cents per bushel below the long term average. 

Canola: Canola markets were lower today with nearby contracts down by C$2.60 to C$3.50 per tonne with the November contract settling at C$690.20 per tonne. Soybean markets provided the downward pressure for canola (see the Ugly) along with European rapeseed futures which were down by 0.25 per cent on the day. Canola losses were limited by support from soybean oil which registered a 1.2 to 1.3 per cent gain during the day. 

International: The USDA reported spring planted was 88 per cent done, progressing nine points on the week and seven ahead of the average. Spring wheat emerged was at 61 per cent, up 18 points from a week ago and nine ahead of the average pace. 

While IKAR cut two million tonnes on its forecast for Russian wheat production at 81.5 million, rival SovEcon chopped 3.6 million tonnes from their estimate dropping it to 82.1 million. 

Wheat production across North Africa is expected to be lower this year due to drought, but Egypt is projected to reap a near-average crop.