Riding the Perfect Pricing Wave

By April 10, 2019Newsletter

At least once a year our family goes to Tofino, BC. Most people that I talk to regularly know that it doesn’t take long for me to bring up Tofino.  Typically, we go during spring break and this year was no exception.

One of the things that the kids and I love to do is go surfing. Now I know what your thinking . . . “umm, Joseph you’re a 300lb strongman, do you even float, let alone surf?”  As much as I’d like to say, you’d be surprised how good I am, I suck at surfing. What do you expect, I am a 300lb strongman!  However, being good at something is not a pre-requisite for loving it.  It is awesome see my 12-year-old daughter, Hannah, head out for hours in the frigid ocean wearing a wetsuit, but having an awesome time trying the catch the best wave and my boys, Truett and Samuel, boogey boarding and mostly just wrestling with each other in the ocean.

That’s what I want to talk about, what I love most about surfing.  The peaceful, serene practice of patience.  Waves come in sets, now, depending on the season and time of day it will vary on the size and power of the waves and how many waves are in a set.  Just to be clear, I could be totally wrong because I surf once to twice a year and am horrible at it.  The key to the sets is counting which wave seems to be the most perfect for you in each set. Sometimes it’s the third or fourth in the set.  For me the beauty is sitting on the ocean watching and waiting for the perfect wave and then when you see it you start paddling, working to have enough momentum to pop up and ride it.  Sometimes you get it, other times you don’t. That is my favorite part just hanging out on the ocean waiting and counting, knowing that if I pass on this wave or choose the wrong wave there will always be another.

Of course, I’m going to relate this to grain markets and our industry because that is exactly what we do.  We watch and wait for the perfect pricing wave for you to hop on and ride.  Each wave and pricing opportunity have a different appeal for different circumstances and risk tolerances.  The pricing wave or the shipment this week, possibly the quick payer wave or tolerance on off spec grain wave.  There are so many options to what makes your wave and opportunity work for you.  We are here sitting on our boards/desks watching these waves for you daily, working hard to let you know when the most bitchin’ wave is coming.

Joseph Billett

1-888-969-5552


Market Report by Nelson Neumann

Barley: The feed barley market continues to cool off. Pricing is still historically strong, but it seems as though the high of the market was at the beginning of March. Buyers are relatively covered through road ban season and into the summer. Despite flooding across the corn belt in America, corn into Lethbridge continues to be an alternative to barley. New crop barley has also cooled down dropping ~$15/MT or $0.33/bushel. Many producers have shifted their seeding plan to include more barley and less peas/canola and this is the primary reason driving down new crop price. Towards the end of the summer we see these prices converge and it may prove wise to lock up any old crop barley before then.

Wheat: Feed wheat softened along with feed barley although not as strongly. Milling wheat pricing has also seen a continued decline. Recently the futures dropped on the news from the latest USDA report showing that global supply was higher than anticipated. Prices have been trending down since January with a bump in the beginning of March.

Peas: Yellow pea pricing has continued to slip further into the doldrums. Demand from China has for the most part ceased, and in response pricing is $6.75-$7.00 delivered across Alberta. Green Pea supply is still very tight. Seeing bids as high as $13.00 delivered into central Alberta. If you have Green Peas now is an excellent time to sell with new crop bids dropping down to $8-$8.50 depending on location.

Canola: Canola markets continue to show little to no life. A strengthening Canadian dollar doesn’t help to the export woes. From what I have been reading it feels as though we should not expect a Chinese resurgence into the market. For off spec Canola there continues to be homes for heated or quite off spec canola. For #2-#3 Canola that is a little green the discounts are heavy and there is a lot of supply available.

Oats: Oats pricing remains stellar; with bids ranging from $3.10 to $3.40 freight dependent. I am also hearing a lot of oats having low germ and attractive pricing opportunities if the germination is high. Oats pricing continues to look strong going into the next crop year based on strong demand both domestic and coming from America. At least one commodity is doing well, allowing us to end on a positive optimistic note!


Buyer Brief –   by Sandra Correia-Letendre

Dry or Wet that is the question…it’s road ban season. With buyers being relatively bought up for the season, their challenge this past week has been “How do I get my grain?” through the wet yards and road bans. Ironically, this has left some buyers in dire need of grain to substitute what they can’t get moved due to these issues.   There is a light at the end of the tunnel, road ban season is almost over, and good weather is drying the yards.
Another reason for soft markets or decreased demand is due to Cattle starting to move out. This causes a surplus of feed and farmers trying hang on to their prices. Buyers are also somewhat holding on to their prices therefore causing a soft market.
Buyers are bearish with New Crop markets. One reason is the back up of Canola due to the Chinese market (which we discussed last newsletter) has left Canola producers re-thinking their seeding plans. The trend is going towards planting more barley.   High supply of barley puts Buyers in a position to bid lower or have the power to negotiate lower bids. Buyers demand is not supporting current prices Somethings got to give to get the market back in line and get traders trading.  
Sellers take away: Buyers are looking for grain to buy for quick movement from dry yards without roads bans.
Call us at 1-888-969-5552 to market your grain.

Picked-Up La Crete Area Bids

Call Clayton or Erin, 1-888-969-5552, ext 1

– FEED BARLEY @ the bin:

April: $4.05-4.10/ bushel

May-July: $4.15-4.25/ bushel

NEW CROP:

Sept-Oct:  $3.30/ bushel

Nov-Dec: $3.40/ bushel

Jan-Mar: $3.45/ bushel

Apr-June: $3.50-3.55/ bushel

– FEED WHEAT @ the bin:

April: $5.20-5.35/ bushel

May-June: $5.25-5.35/ bushel

– #1/2 CPSR WHEAT:

April-July: Feed pricing currently stronger.

#1/#2 HRS Wheat:

April-June: $6.40-6.90/ bushel picked-up based 13-13.5% protein.

– 2CW OATS @ the bin (subject to sample):

April 2019: $3.00/ bushel

May-August 2019: $2.85-2.95/ bushel

*Higher pricing available for excellent colour.

– 3CW OATS @ the bin:

$0.10-0.25/bushel discount to 2cw bids.

– FEED OATS @ the bin:

April-May: $2.20-2.30/ bushel, depending on quality

– 2CW GREEN PEAS @ the bin:

Max 3% bleach:

April-May: $12.60/ bushel

– 2CW YELLOW PEAS @ the bin

April-May: $6.05/ bushel picked-up

– FEED PEAS @ the bin

April: $6.00/ bushel

– 2CW FABAS @ the bin:

April-May: $9.80/ bushel

– FEED FABAS @ the bin

April-May: $6.00/ bushel

– CANOLA @ the bin (as of March 13th):
Based Max 2% Green!

April-May: $8.80-8.90/ bushel

May-July: $9.00/ bushel

… Need a price for something else? Please email or give us a call!


Picked-Up Grande Prairie Area Bids
Call Clayton or Erin, 1-888-969-5552, ext 1

– FEED BARLEY @ the bin:

Apr: $4.45-4.50/ bushel

May-Aug: $4.55-4.60/ bushel

NEW CROP:

Sept-Oct:  $3.65/ bushel

Nov-Dec: $3.70-3.75/ bushel

Jan-Mar: $3.75-3.90/ bushel

Apr-June: $3.90-4.00/ bushel

– FEED WHEAT @ the bin:

March- 1st 1/2 April: $5.65-5.75/ bushel

Last 1/2 April – June: $5.70-5.80/ bushel

… Good protein? Falling # 285-300 or better? We are seeing an additional $0.25/bu.

– #1/2 CPSR WHEAT:

April-May: Feed pricing currently stronger.

#1/#2 HRS Wheat:

April-May: $6.50-7.00 picked-up based 13-13.5+% protein.

– 2CW OATS @ the bin (subject to sample):

April 2019: $3.05-3.20/ bushel

May-August: $3.05-3.15/ bushel

– 3CW OATS @ the bin

$0.10-0.25/bushel discount to 2cw bids.

– FEED OATS @ the bin

April: $2.60-2.75/ bushel, depending on quality

– 2CW GREEN PEAS @ the bin:

Max 3% bleach:

April-May: $12.60/ bushel

– 2CW YELLOW PEAS @ the bin

April-May: $6.35-6.45/ bushel

– FEED PEAS @ the bin:

April-June: $6.00-6.25/ bushel

– 2CW FABA BEANS @ the bin

April-May: $10.20/ bushel

– FEED FABAS @ the bin

April-May: $5.90-6.00/ bushel

– CANOLA @ the bin (as of March 13th)
Based Max 2% Green!

April: $9.05-9.20/ bushel

May-July: $9.30-9.40/ bushel


Picked-Up Athabasca Area Bids

Call Clayton or Erin, 1-888-969-5552, ext 1

– FEED BARLEY @ the bin:
April-May: $4.75-4.80/ bushel
June-August: $4.80-4.85/ bushel
NEW CROP:
Sept-Oct:  $3.70-3.80/ bushel
Nov-Dec: $3.85-3.90/ bushel

– FEED WHEAT @ the bin:
April-May: $5.80-5.90/ bushel
June-July: $5.90-6.00/ bushel

– #1/2 CPSR WHEAT:
April-July: Currently lower than feed.
#1/#2 HRS Wheat:
April-July: $6.50-6.85/bu picked-up (13-13.5% protein).

– 2CW OATS @ the bin (subject to sample):
April 2019: $3.40-3.45/ bushel
May-August 2019: $3.35-3.40/ bushel
– 3CW OATS @ the bin:
$0.10-0.25/bushel discount to 2cw bids.
– FEED OATS @ the bin:
March-April: $2.75-2.90/ bushel depending on quality

– 2CW GREEN PEAS @ the bin:
Max 3% bleach:
April-May: $12.20/ bushel

– 2CW YELLOW PEAS @ the bin
April-May: 6.45/ bushel

– FEED PEAS @ the bin
April-May: $6.30-6.50/ bushel

– 2CW FABAS @ the bin:
April-May: $10.25-10.50/ bushel
– FEED FABAS @ the bin
April-May: $6.25-6.40/ bushel

– #1 CANOLA @ the bin (as of April 9th)
April: $9.50/ bushel
May-Jun: $9.55-9.70/ bushel


Picked-Up St. Paul Area Bids

Call Nelson, 1-888-969-5552, ext 3

– FEED BARLEY @ the bin:
April-May: $4.80/bushel
June-July: $4.80-$4.85

NEW CROP
sept-Oct: $3.80/bushel
Nov-Dec: $3.80-$3.90/bushel

– FEED WHEAT @ the bin:
April-May: $5.95-$6.00/bushel
June-July: $6.05/bushel

** If graded a feed but is dry and has adequate protein (13%+) and falling number over 300, there is a premium available ***

– 2CW OATS @ the bin (subject to sample):
April-May: $3.35
June-July:$3.15-$3.25

– 3CW OATS @ the bin:
$0.10-0.25/bushel discount to #2CW bids.

– FEED OATS
@ the bin:
April-July: $2.90-$3.05/ bushel depending on quality.

– GREEN PEAS @ the bin:
April-July: $12.38-$12.40/bu picked up
3% bleached or less – call for higher bleached.

– YELLOW PEAS @ the bin
April-July: $6.40 picked up

– FEED PEAS @ the bin
April-July: $6.15-6.35/bushel

– FEED FABAS @ the bin
April-July: $6.25-$6.50

*Give us a call to discuss placing a target, or email Nelson@Agfinity.com with your legal land description for a price!


Picked-Up Edmonton Area Bids

Call Clayton or Erin, 1-888-969-5552, ext 1

– FEED BARLEY @ the bin:
April: $4.95-$5.00/ bushel
May-August: $5.05-5.10/ bushel
NEW CROP:
Sept-Oct:  $4.00/ bushel
Nov-Dec: $4.15-4.20/ bushel

– FEED WHEAT @ the bin:
April-May: $6.05-6.15/ bushel
… Good protein? Falling # 285-300 or better? We are seeing an additional $0.25/bu.

– #1/2 CPSR WHEAT:
April-July: Feed pricing is currently stronger.
#1/#2 HRS Wheat:
April-July: $6.50-6.85/bu picked up based 13-13.5% protein.

– 2CW OATS @ the bin (subject to sample):
April-May: $3.40-3.50/ bushel
June-August: $3.30-3.40/ bushel
– 3CW OATS @ the bin:
$0.10-0.25/bushel discount to 2cw bids.
– FEED OATS @ the bin:
April-June: $2.80-3.00/ bushel, depending on quality

– 2CW GREEN PEAS @ the bin:
Max 3% bleach:
April-May: $12.20/ bushel

– 2CW YELLOW PEAS @ the bin
April-May: $6.60-6.70/ bushel

– FEED PEAS @ the bin:
April-May: $6.50-6.65/ bushel

– 2CW FABAS @ the bin:
April-May: $10.60-10.65/ bushel
– FEED FABAS @ the bin
April-May: $6.40-6.50/ bushel

– CANOLA @ the bin (as of April 9th)
April-July: $9.60-9.70/ bushel
… Give us a call to discuss placing a target, or email Clayton@Agfinity.com or Erin@agfinity.com with your legal land description for a price!


Picked-Up Camrose Area Bids

Call Clayton or Erin, 1-888-969-5552, ext 1

– FEED BARLEY @ the bin:
April: $5.00-5.10/ bushel
May-August: $5.20-5.30/ bushel
NEW CROP:
Sept-Oct:  $4.05/ bushel
Nov-Dec: $4.15-4.20/ bushel

– FEED WHEAT @ the bin:
April: $5.90-6.6.10/ bushel
May-June: $6.10-6.30/ bushel
(Good protein? Falling # 285-300 or better? We are seeing an additional $0.25/bu.)

– #1/2 CPSR WHEAT:
April-June: Feed Wheat bids currently stronger.
– #1/#2 HRS Wheat:
April-June: $6.50-6.90/bu picked-up based 13-13.5% protein.

– 2CW OATS @ the bin (subject to sample):
April-May: $3.35/ bushel
June-August: $3.35-3.40/ bushel
*Additional premiums available for excellent colour!
– 3CW OATS @ the bin:
$0.10-0.25/bushel discount to 2cw bids.
– FEED OATS @ the bin:
Apri-May: $2.90-3.10/ bushel

– 2CW GREEN PEAS @ the bin:
Max 3% bleach:
april-May: $12.60/ bushel

– 2CW YELLOW PEAS @ the bin
March-May: $6.60-6.70/ bushel

– FEED PEAS @ the bin
April: $6.65/ bushel

– 2CW FABAS @ the bin:
April-May: $10.50/ bushel
– 3CW FABAS @ the bin:
April-May: $9.25/ bushel
– FEED FABAS @ the bin
April-May: $6.40-6.50/ bushel

– CANOLA @ the bin (as of March 13th)
April: $9.50/ bushel
May-July: $9.60-9.70/ bushel


Picked-Up Vermilion Area Bids

Call Nelson, 1-888-969-5552, ext 3

– FEED BARLEY @ the bin:
April-May: $4.85-$4.90/bushel
June-July: $4.90/bushel
NEW CROP:
Sept-Oct: $3.90-$4.00/bushel
Nov-Dec: $4.00/bushel

– FEED WHEAT @ the bin:
April-May: $6.10-$6.14/bushel
June-July: $6.10-$6.14/bushel

– 2CW OATS @ the bin (subject to sample):
April-June: $3.45/bushel

– 3CW OATS @ the bin:
$0.10-0.25/bushel discount to 2cw bids.

– FEED OATS @ the bin:

April-July: $3.05-$3.10/ bushel depending on quality.

– GREEN PEAS @ the bin:
April-July: $12.45/bushel
Max 3% bleach:  *Call or email on higher bleach.

– YELLOW PEAS @ the bin
March-April: $6.60/bushel

– FEED PEAS @ the bin
March-April: $6.50/bushel

– FEED FABAS @ the bin
March-April $7.00/bushel

– CANOLA @ the bin 
*Give us a call to discuss placing a target, or email Nelson@Agfinity.com with your legal land description for a price!
com with your legal land description for a price!


Picked-Up Red Deer Area Bids
Call Clayton or Erin, 1-888-969-5552, ext 1

– FEED BARLEY @ the bin:
April-May: $5.10-5.15/ bushel
June-July: $5.20/ bushel
NEW CROP:
Sept-Oct:  $4.20/ bushel
Nov-Dec: $4.20-4.25/ bushel
Jan-Mar: $4.30-$4.35/ bushel
Apr-June: $4.45-4.50/ bushel

– FEED WHEAT @ the bin:
April: $6.20/ bushel
May-June: $6.25-6.40/ bushel
… Good protein? Falling # 285-300 or better? We are seeing an additional $0.25/bu.

– #1/2 CPSR WHEAT:
April-July: Currently under feed values.
#1/#2 HRS Wheat:
April-June: $6.50-7.00/ bu picked-up based 13-13.5% protein.

– 2CW OATS @ the bin (Subject to sample):
April-August: $3.30-3.45/ bushel
*Additional premiums available for excellent colour.

– 3CW OATS @ the bin:
$0.10-0.25/bushel discount to 2cw bids.
– FEED OATS:
April: $2.80-3.00/ bushel, depending on quality

– 2CW GREEN PEAS @ the bin:
Max 3% bleach:
April-May: $12.20/ bushel

– 2CW YELLOW PEAS @ the bin
April-May: $6.80/ bu

– FEED PEAS @ the bin
April-May: $6.40-6.45/ bushel

– 2CW FABAS @ the bin:
April-May: $10.40/ bushel
– FEED FABAS @ the bin
April-May: $6.50/ bushel

– CANOLA @ the bin (as of April 9th)
April-July: $9.70-9.80/ bushel


Picked-Up Coronation Area Bids

Call Nelson, 1-888-969-5552, ext 3

– FEED BARLEY @ the bin:
 April-May: $5.10-$5.15
June-July: $5.15-$5.20

NEW CROP
Sept-Oct: $4.30-4.35/bushel
Nov-Dec: $4.35-$4.40/bushel

– FEED WHEAT @ the bin:
April-May: $6.10-$6.15/bushel
June-July: $6.15/bushel

– 2CW OATS @ the bin (subject to sample):
April-May: $3.38/bushel

– 3CW OATS @ the bin:
$0.10-0.25/bushel discount to 2cw bids.

– FEED OATS @ the bin:
April-May: $3.10-3.20 depending on quality.

– GREEN PEAS @ the bin:
April-May: $12.08/bushel
Max 3% bleach
*Call or email on higher bleach.

– YELLOW PEAS @ the bin
April-May: $6.55-$6.60/bushel

– FEED PEAS @ the bin
April: $6.50/ bushel

– FEED FABAS @ the bin
April: $6.15-$6.25/ bushel

– CANOLA @ the bin 
*Give us a call to discuss placing a target, or email Nelson@Agfinity.com with your legal land description for a price!


Picked-Up Calgary Area Bids

Call Nelson, 1-888-969-5552, ext 3

– FEED BARLEY @ the bin:
April-May: $5.28-$5.32
June-July: $5.25-$5.30
September/October New Crop: $4.28-$4.38/bushel

– FEED WHEAT @ the bin:
April-May: $6.35-$6.40/bushel
June-July: $6.40-$6.43/bushel

** If graded a feed but is dry and has adequate protein (13%+) and falling number over 300, there is a premium available ***

– 2CW OATS @ the bin (subject to sample):
April-July: $3.40-$3.45

– 3CW OATS @ the bin:
$0.10-0.25/bushel discount to #2CW bids.

– FEED OATS
@ the bin:
April-July: $3.35-$3.40/ bushel depending on quality.

– GREEN PEAS @ the bin:
April-July: $12.60/bu picked up
3% bleached or less – call for higher bleached.

– YELLOW PEAS @ the bin
April-July: $6.85 picked up

– FEED PEAS @ the bin
April-July: $6.85/bushel

– CANOLA @ the bin 
*Give us a call to discuss placing a target, or email Nelson@Agfinity.com with your legal land description for a price!


Picked-Up Brooks Area Area Bids
Call Nelson, 1-888-969-5552, ext 3

– FEED BARLEY @ the bin:
April-May: $5.30-$5.35/bushel
June-July: $5.35/bushel

September/October New Crop: $4.30-$4.40

– FEED WHEAT @ the bin:
April-May: $6.35-$6.40/bushel
June-July: $6.40/bushel

– FEED OATS @ the bin:
April-May: $2.80-$3.00/ bushel depending on quality.

– GREEN PEAS @ the bin:
April-May: $12.60/bu picked up

– YELLOW PEAS @ the bin
April-May: $6.60/bushel picked up

– FEED PEAS @ the bin
April-May:$6.40/ bushel

– CANOLA @ the bin 
*Give us a call to discuss placing a target, or email Nelson@Agfinity.com with your legal land description for a price!


Dlvd Lethbridge / Picture Butte Bids

Call Nelson, 1-888-969-5552, ext 3

– FEED BARLEY :
April-May: $5.60-$5.65/bushel
June-July: $5.60-$5.65/bushel

September-October New Crop: $4.62-$4.73
November New Crop: $4.73

– FEED WHEAT :
April-May: $6.75-$6.80/bushel
June-July: $6.75-$6.80/bushel

– FEED OATS :

April-July: $3.66/ bushel depending on quality.

– GREEN PEAS :
March-April: $12.50-$12.75/bushel
August-October New Crop: $8.00/bushel
*Based 3% bleach. Higher % bleached give us a call!

– YELLOW PEAS
April-June: $7.00/bushel
August-October New Crop: $6.50/bushel

– FEED PEAS
March-April: $7.00-$7.15/ bushel delivered

– FEED FABAS
March-April: $7.00-$7.50/bushel delivered

– CANOLA Delivered
*Give us a call to discuss placing a target, or email Nelson@Agfinity.com with your legal land description for a price!


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CLIENT TESTIMONIALS
 
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–  Kurt Boese, Neilburg, SK

 “For the past seven years I’ve been dealing with the Agfinity group and what a fantastic group of people they are. From number 1 to feed grain and canola. All the buyers at Agfinity can Make it happen. Fast turn around times on every thing. Movement, payment, and the inbetween  that all of us farmers don’t see or care about. Good job to the Agfinity crew and keep on buying our grain.”
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April 10, 2019