Another shockingly bearish report by the USDA was released this Tuesday. Though most traders and analysts were anticipating lower yields for corn and soybeans, the report showed an increase for both over August, with corn projected to yield an average of 169.9 bu/acre (up from 169.5), and soybeans, an average of 49.9 bu/acre (up from 49.4).
In addition to large yields, the report also forecasted larger ending stocks of corn at 2.335 billion bushels, up from 2.27 b.b.
And soybeans, though expected to be roughly 30 million bushels less, were left unchanged at 0.475 b.b.
Ending stocks for wheat also stayed the same at 0.933 b.b.
LOCAL MARKETS & CONDITIONS
Well… it would appear the feed market can breathe again… The biggest news affecting local markets is the shift in weather, as moisture and frost have entered the forecast, delaying harvest progress. Frost has also already been reported through parts of the Peace country.
In the event your wheat is affected by frost, its value can still be salvaged by good falling numbers / protein levels, so make sure you’re getting it properly tested this fall!
Poor weather at harvest is also expected to downgrade our large oats crop, which will put added pressure on the feed market, but should sustain strong demand for milling/pony oats through the rest of this year.
Though CPSR bids have not seen much demand in the past couple months, some export demand is finally reentering the market. Nevertheless, quick movement opportunities are still seeing better dollars from the domestic milling market.
Speaking of protein…
How are things looking so far…?
One of Agfinity’s market analysts took 21 CWRS samples into the elevator yesterday and results were lower than expected with an average of 12.7% protein. “This increases the importance of protein spreads for higher protein, but also discounts below 13%,” he said during a conference call yesterday afternoon. “High protein is hard to find and will see incredible demand this year in North America.”
So, if your wheat makes the grade and is good protein, waiting to price should serve you well. And if you don’t have the best quality, give us a call and we can discuss this year’s marketing strategy.
If you need to sell something right now
, but you’re not sure what, we feel canola and barley might be your best options, as good quality wheat, peas and milling oats currently have more reasons to rally later in the year. Pricing CPSR, low grade/protein HRS wheat into the spot feed market is also a decent option for those who need bin space / cash flow, as bids are ranging between $5.00-5.24/bushel picked-up between Edmonton and Calgary, outpacing current export values by up to $0.75/bushel.
If you’re stuck inside waiting out the rain or counting down the days to frost, feel free to give us a call! We don’t want you going stir-crazy!!
Talk to you soon!