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Your Questions, Our Answers
If I even get to it (or have to get to it), are there actually going to be buyers for spring thrashed?
Believe it or not, while the potential for making grade has evaporated with the neverending precipitation this April (sprouting/mildew concerns),
there are still several feed grain buyers eager to buy spring thrashed grain.
A few provisors… Overall quality still matters. Prices will be mediocre at best. And mice and deer poop is still mice and deer poop.
Should I be pricing canola?
With Stats Can’s aggressive increase on oilseeds
(10% more canola, 19% more flax and 27% more soybeans)
, as well as the huge soybean harvest in South America and the increase in soybean acres in the US,
yes, we think you should b
e pricing some canola!
Old crop
, we’re working on targets around $12 while the snow is still here, and the Canadian dollar is still trading at $0.74.
New crop, if you’re sitting at 0% priced, let’s try locking some in at close to $11 delivered while demand is still strong.
What’s moving Wheat up?
Weather concerns have taken away seller confidence and have opened up the possibility for last minute crop changes.
Expect to see continued new crop premiums to entice forward pricing.
#2 CWRS bids for 2018 have been approaching $7 delivered at some locations!
…Speaking of weather concerns, how should I be taking advantage of what’s going on?
The Funds love weather concerns!! It’s a chance to push the market the other way, or right to it’s limit. Forward pricing exposes you to risk, but depending on your comfort levels,
pricing a percentage of next year’s crop amid springtime uncertainties is not a bad idea!
What else should I be keeping an eye on?
Though Jared & Michelle’s upcoming family trip to Disneyland is not finding any support from a 74 cent dollar, Canadian export sales are! As more sales are made, we can expect to see more attractive wheat and canola basis levels for the foreseeable future.
Any sleeper crops or advice on what to seed?
Drumroll please! … We’ve picked peas as the 2017/2018 sleeper crop!
There’s bound to be fewer acres seeded with this weather, and with fumigation concerns still hanging over next harvest, producer’s do not have the same confidence as they had last year.
Will India actually reject Canada’s 2017 harvest if we’re unable to fumigate? If you have bin space, we think you need not worry. Time shall prevail!
And what about my “favorite” crop,Barley?
Stats Canada has acres down 8%. And if things go according to plan, barley would slowly recover. Nevertheless, there’s still snow outside…
Another year of $3 barley may be in the works.
Forward Pricing
– We’re expecting limited upside this year. Does storing for 10 months validate a $0.25/bushel premium? …We don’t believe it does. And though $3-3.25 barley may not be too exciting,
locking in a percentage of off-combine sales is definitely worth considering.
Oats Warning!
Stats can has acres up 20%! Bids have been around $2.50 picked-up in most areas and we’re encouraging producers to start locking some in! Give us a call!
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